Iran Tells Americans to Stockpile Gas as Missiles Fly

Will Americans soon be paying for this war at the pump because Iran has decided to make them pay for it at the pump? That is the question forced by Tehran this week, after Iran's first vice president told the United States outright to start stockpiling gasoline and warned of dark months for the American economy. ¹ It was not an analyst's forecast or a market note. It was a statement of intent, issued in the same 72 hours in which Iranian missiles and drones were fired toward American-linked sites in five countries. ¹

On September 3, Mohammad Reza Aref, first vice president under President Masoud Pezeshkian since July 2024, posted that America's new crimes against the Iranian nation had changed Iran's security equations and defense doctrine. ² From now on, he said, the response would be asymmetrical and multi-layered, aimed at depriving the aggressor of security. ² Then came the economic threat, rendered in English as Americans should start thinking about stockpiling gasoline and fuel, with dark months awaiting the American economy. ¹

The timing is what turns a post into a doctrine. The warning followed a resumption of bombing after roughly a month-long lull, beginning with a U.S. strike on Iran's Larak Island on August 30 and then a larger American wave on September 1 against Revolutionary Guard targets around the Strait of Hormuz, including the Kuhestak and Sirik area on Iran's southern coast. ⁶ Aref framed that bombing as the break point, the moment Iran shifted from deterrence to a retaliation designed to deny the United States security in return. ² Over the next roughly 72 hours, Iran claimed or reported strikes on U.S.-linked sites in Jordan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Iraq. ¹

What actually landed in those five countries is far less than what Tehran claimed. U.S. officials and host governments described most incoming fire as intercepted, with limited or no American casualties, in direct contradiction of Iranian claims of destroyed bases. ¹ Jordan said at least 18 ballistic missiles had been brought down over the past few days. ¹ Kuwait reported that an Iranian drone hit a residential compound in the capital governorate, starting a fire that was extinguished, with no injuries and only material damage, not a confirmed strike on a U.S. base. ¹ Iran said its forces hit bases in Kuwait, naming Ali Al Salem and Ahmad Al Jaber, and at Al Minhad in the UAE, while Gulf states condemned the attacks. ¹

The threat lands because American wallets are already moving. The national average price of regular gasoline has been around $4.14 a gallon, with diesel at a record above $5.80, and the Labor Day figure described as a record for that holiday. ^{12 16} Brent crude has traded in the mid- to high $90s, near $96 on September 1 and above $97 during the September 3 session, with global prices just short of $100, while reporting points to U.S. mortgage rates near 7%. ^{15 16} Vice President JD Vance has blamed the prices on Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and declined to set a new date for a return to $3 gas after a July forecast of possibly by Labor Day. ²⁶

In the same news cycle, the White House offered two descriptions of the same fight. President Donald Trump declared Now we have a war with Iran and said we just hit him again last night. ⁵ In the same cycle, Vice President JD Vance said I wouldn't call it a war and there is no active shooting, describing six weeks of major combat operations. ⁵ Vance claimed that past U.S. strikes, the 2025 operation Midnight Hammer and the 2026 campaign Epic Fury, destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities and military production capacity, making reconstitution harder, and he refused to set an end date, linking any talks to Iran halting attacks on commercial shipping. ⁵ DW News and other outlets, by contrast, date the war from the end of February 2026 and describe it as more than six months old, alongside an effective U.S. naval blockade and reports of long lines and possible fuel rationing inside Iran itself. ²⁷

The most fiercely disputed number is not the rhetoric but the oil itself. The pre-war benchmark used by U.S. officials is about 20 million barrels a day through Hormuz. ¹ Energy Secretary Chris Wright has claimed more than 17 million barrels transited the strait on the Monday before the strikes, and says Gulf exports are near or above pre-war levels once bypass pipelines are counted. ¹ Vance, in his September 3 briefing, put it at 15 million barrels last night. ¹ Independent tanker trackers and analysts put the real figure far lower, roughly 5 to 6 million barrels a day through the strait, or about half of Wright's claim, because much of the shipping runs dark with its transponder switched off, moves at night, or transfers cargo ship-to-ship. ¹⁴ Iran, under an effective U.S. blockade, has exported no oil for seven weeks against 1.7 million barrels a day before the war. ¹

The second contested event is the claim that a U.S. strike hit a wedding in southern Iran. Iranian officials and state media say an American strike on September 1 hit a wedding celebration in Kuhestak, in Sirik County on the Hormuz coast, killing at least four people, later reported as five after a young woman died in hospital, including two children, and wounding roughly 63 to 67 people, with the Iranian Red Crescent cited in the toll. ⁶ Iran called it a war crime, held funerals, and the Revolutionary Guard vowed revenge. ⁶ The United States denies targeting civilians. ⁶ Vance said CENTCOM is investigating, that he is extremely sceptical of Iranian state media, that sometimes things happen, and that no determination on responsibility has been made. ⁶ A Reuters analysis has argued the house damage is consistent with a direct U.S. munition hit, an independent forensic conclusion, not a U.S. admission. ⁶

On the American side the posture is expanding, not shrinking. About 50,000 U.S. troops remain in the region, with two carrier strike groups, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, and no peace deal in sight. ¹ Iranian state-backed hackers have probed U.S. water and energy systems unsuccessfully. ¹ Whether the dark months Aref promises actually arrive now depends on whether Tehran can carry out a full asymmetrical campaign against energy infrastructure and shipping, and whether Washington, already contradicting itself on whether this is a war, how long it has lasted, how much oil is getting through, and whether it killed civilians at a wedding, can force prices down while under a threat whose entire purpose is to keep them high. ¹